ANTLIA. Anticipation of lithium amount for energy transition. Insight for a methodological approach for the construction of critical minerals modelling and delivering scenarios
Résumé
Insight for a methodological approach for the construction of critical minerals modelling and delivering scenarios
This presentation is based on a value chain perspective. Crossing global lithium-based energy transition policies (decarbonized mobility in particular), it aims to offer methodological insights for the forecast of critical minerals through modelling and the constitution of resource intensive energy transition scenarios. The presentation will be based on a lithium system dynamic modelling, ANTLIA, a model developed on a World and European scales to 2050 to anticipate the evolution of lithium production and consumption and to establish a sovereignty index to anticipate European needs based on policies recommendations. We will present the framework of the model (modules and parameters) and the value chains (stocks, flows, offer, demand). We will show how dynamic system modellings can be useful to establish a reference scenario and to identify the sensibility of the parameters. Changing the value of parameters provide alternative scenarios built on two major dimensions: critical minerals energy transition systems (lithium-intensive systems) and indexes of sovereignty.
Domaines
Economies et financesOrigine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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