Probabilistic surrogate modeling by Gaussian process: A new estimation algorithm for more reliable prediction - CEA - Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2023

Probabilistic surrogate modeling by Gaussian process: A new estimation algorithm for more reliable prediction

Résumé

In reliability engineering studies, computer codes are increasingly used to model physical phenomena which, in many cases, can be very time-consuming to run. A widely accepted approach consists in approximating the CPU-time expensive computer model by a surrogate model. One of the most popular surrogate model is the Gaussian Process regression, as it provides, additionally to a prediction at an unobserved point, an uncertainty around this prediction (a predictive distribution). However, in practice, the quality of this metamodel depends on several choices, as the estimation and validation algorithms. The present work aims at proposing a new algorithm, based on constrained optimization multi-objective techniques, to estimate the Gaussian process hyperparameters in order to ensure robust and reliable predictive distribution of the Gaussian process. An intensive numerical benchmark on various analytical functions, with different input dimensions and learning sample sizes, shows its good performance in comparison with standard estimation algorithms. The new algorithm is also applied to a real test case modeling an aquatic ecosystem. It is compared with a recent robust and sophisticated Bayesian method; it proves to be as efficient while being less sensitive to the specification of the Gaussian process model.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Reliable_GP_estimation_NewAlgo_VersionHAL_CEA.pdf (7.39 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Dates et versions

cea-04322818 , version 1 (05-12-2023)
cea-04322818 , version 2 (22-02-2024)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : cea-04322818 , version 1

Citer

Amandine Marrel, Bertrand Iooss. Probabilistic surrogate modeling by Gaussian process: A new estimation algorithm for more reliable prediction. 2023. ⟨cea-04322818v1⟩
221 Consultations
234 Téléchargements

Partager

More