Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity
E. J. Rohling
(1, 2)
,
A. Sluijs
(3)
,
H. A. Dijkstra
(4)
,
P. Köhler
(5)
,
R. S. W. van de Wal
(4)
,
A. S. von Der Heydt
(4)
,
D. J. Beerling
(6)
,
A. Berger
(7)
,
P. K. Bijl
(3)
,
M. Crucifix
(7)
,
R. Deconto
(8)
,
S. S. Drijfhout
(9)
,
A. Fedorov
(10)
,
G. L. Foster
(1)
,
A. Ganopolski
(11)
,
J. Hansen
(12)
,
B. Hönisch
(13)
,
H. Hooghiemstra
(14)
,
M. Huber
(15)
,
P. Huybers
(16)
,
R. Knutti
(17)
,
D. W. Lea
(18)
,
L. J. Lourens
(3)
,
D. Lunt
(19)
,
Valérie Masson-Delmotte
(20, 21)
,
M. Medina-Elizalde
(22)
,
B. Otto-Bliesner
(23)
,
M. Pagani
(10)
,
H. Pälike
(1)
,
H. Renssen
(24)
,
D. L. Royer
(25)
,
M. Siddall
(26)
,
P. Valdes
(19)
,
J. C. Zachos
(27)
,
R. E. Zeebe
(28)
1
University of Southampton
2 RSES - Research School of Earth Sciences [Canberra]
3 Department of Earth Sciences - Geochemistry [Utrecht]
4 IMAU - Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht]
5 AWI - Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
6 Department of Animal and Plant Sciences [Sheffield]
7 TECLIM - Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain]
8 UMass Amherst - University of Massachusetts [Amherst]
9 KNMI - Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
10 Department of Geology and Geophysics [New Haven]
11 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
12 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
13 LDEO - Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
14 IBED - Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics
15 IUPUI - Indiana University - Purdue University Indianapolis
16 EPS - Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Cambridge, USA]
17 IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich]
18 Department of Earth Science [Santa Barbara)
19 School of Geographical Sciences [Bristol]
20 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
21 GLACCIOS - Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables
22 CICY - Centro de Investigacion Cientifica de Yucatan
23 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
24 FALW - Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam]
25 Wesleyan University
26 UWE Bristol - University of the West of England [Bristol]
27 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Santa Cruz]
28 SOEST - School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology
2 RSES - Research School of Earth Sciences [Canberra]
3 Department of Earth Sciences - Geochemistry [Utrecht]
4 IMAU - Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht]
5 AWI - Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
6 Department of Animal and Plant Sciences [Sheffield]
7 TECLIM - Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain]
8 UMass Amherst - University of Massachusetts [Amherst]
9 KNMI - Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
10 Department of Geology and Geophysics [New Haven]
11 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
12 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
13 LDEO - Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
14 IBED - Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics
15 IUPUI - Indiana University - Purdue University Indianapolis
16 EPS - Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Cambridge, USA]
17 IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich]
18 Department of Earth Science [Santa Barbara)
19 School of Geographical Sciences [Bristol]
20 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
21 GLACCIOS - Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables
22 CICY - Centro de Investigacion Cientifica de Yucatan
23 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
24 FALW - Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam]
25 Wesleyan University
26 UWE Bristol - University of the West of England [Bristol]
27 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Santa Cruz]
28 SOEST - School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology
P. Köhler
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 760030
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0904-8484
M. Crucifix
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 5963
- IdHAL : mcrucifix
- ORCID : 0000-0002-3437-4911
- IdRef : 192985434
A. Fedorov
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 755355
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9687-3356
- IdRef : 26321625X
Valérie Masson-Delmotte
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 859531
Abstract
Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in KW$^{−1}$ m$^2$) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$, which agrees with IPCC estimates
Origin : Publication funded by an institution
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