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Journal Articles Nature Year : 2012

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

1 University of Southampton
2 RSES - Research School of Earth Sciences [Canberra]
3 Department of Earth Sciences - Geochemistry [Utrecht]
4 IMAU - Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht]
5 AWI - Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
6 Department of Animal and Plant Sciences [Sheffield]
7 TECLIM - Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain]
8 UMass Amherst - University of Massachusetts [Amherst]
9 KNMI - Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
10 Department of Geology and Geophysics [New Haven]
11 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
12 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
13 LDEO - Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
14 IBED - Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics
15 IUPUI - Indiana University - Purdue University Indianapolis
16 EPS - Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Cambridge, USA]
17 IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich]
18 Department of Earth Science [Santa Barbara)
19 School of Geographical Sciences [Bristol]
20 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
21 GLACCIOS - Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables
22 CICY - Centro de Investigacion Cientifica de Yucatan
23 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
24 FALW - Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam]
25 Wesleyan University
26 UWE Bristol - University of the West of England [Bristol]
27 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Santa Cruz]
28 SOEST - School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology
D. L. Royer
  • Function : Author


Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in KW$^{−1}$ m$^2$) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$, which agrees with IPCC estimates
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Origin : Publication funded by an institution

Dates and versions

cea-00880704 , version 1 (21-10-2019)



E. J. Rohling, A. Sluijs, H. A. Dijkstra, P. Köhler, R. S. W. van de Wal, et al.. Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, 2012, 491 (7426), pp.683-691. ⟨10.1038/nature11574⟩. ⟨cea-00880704⟩
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